This Week in Abortion: Lessons from Elections

A collection of good reads, events from the week, and policy insights.

Nov 11, 2023

Welcome back to your weekly roundup of good reads, news updates, and policy insights on abortion.

I told myself I wouldn’t get too in the weeds, but isn't that why you're here? This week’s newsletter includes my short breakdown of the election results and takeaways. You’ve seen the quick take by now: abortion won, hooray! So now let’s drill down a bit and think about what it all means.

Before we dive in, a more personal win: I’m excited to share my op-ed based on my research into Alaska’s election model, published in the Chicago Tribune this week. As I’ve said before, there is evidence that election reform can open the door to leaders willing and able to face the many challenges before us, including the choppy waters of abortion access.

Good Reads

In the lead-up to the Republican presidential debate, Elisha Brown at States Newsroom looked at how Nikki Haley talks about abortion. I think Haley’s strategy of saying as little as possible, with as much feeling as possible, represents the approach a lot of Republicans are going to start taking on this issue. (2 min)
Tony Leys of KFF Health News has an article in The 19th about a very creative anti-access law in Iowa, which in practice prevents Medicaid from covering abortions under any circumstances. (4 min)
There is an estrogen shortage in Canada, writes Dr. Jen Gunter. No, it’s not a joke about the number of women in the country; it’s a real problem in pharmacies. Gunter goes into what to do if you encounter a shortage where you are, now or in the future. Something I’ll be keeping bookmarked. (8 min)

Elections, Watched!

I’m reviewing the top three states where voting took place on Tuesday, and then digging into the takeaways for both pro and anti-access advocates. Have other thoughts? Get the conversation started by leaving a comment.

Ohio:

Ohio was an especially meaningful win. Unlike the ballot initiatives that passed last year, in this election voters weren’t just maintaining the status quo. Ohioans decided to enshrine new protections into the state’s constitution, defying an anti-access legislature, in a state that Trump won in 2020. But, the work continues.
Anyone trying to move an abortion ballot initiative in 2024 will also be closely studying this election. At a minimum, the win has renewed media chatter about voter-led constitutional amendments. So, here is our primer on what ballot initiatives are and why they’re a viable solution in only some states.

Virginia:

Democrats pretty much swept the election using a pro-access message, securing access in the state.
I feel confident that Governor Glenn Youngkin will veto any expansion of rights, so I wouldn’t look for core rights to change. But, it will be interesting to see if legislators can leverage this moment to expand functional access by introducing more flexible operations for providers, supportive infrastructure, and funding similar to other pro-access states. If they do, will Youngkin stamp his veto on everything, or will it all become a bargaining chip for other policy-making in the state?

Kentucky:

While Kentucky counts as a win, it comes with more caveats than the clear-cut sweeps in VA and OH. It’s also a better election to look to for a lesson on deep red states.
Pro-access Governor Andy Beshear’s abortion messaging focused on the need for exemptions and his support for “reasonable compromise.”
Anti-access candidate for attorney general Russell Coleman easily won his race. Compared to Republican gubernatorial candidate Daniel Cameron, Coleman seemed to better convince the public that he supported exemptions to the current ban. Meanwhile, his opponent - State Representative Pamela Stevenson - said that as AG she would not prioritize enforcement of the abortion ban and she has been out front on the issue as a legislator.
Anti-access Secretary of State Michael Adams was arguably the most successful candidate of the night. Since he also rejected stolen election nonsense, the pro-democracy advocate in me is not disappointed.
As a reminder, Kentucky’s state legislature is still anti-access, so for now, nothing changes in terms of actual policy. To quote the anti-access editors of the National Review, “Change will likely involve seeking incremental gains.”
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Anti-Access Takeaways:

The anti-access movement is blaming its losses on poor communication and messaging. - They are doubling down on the strategy of casting bans as a “consensus” and trying to paint abortion advocates as extreme.
Coming out of this election, anti-access advocates will probably continue what I think is a strategic policy focus on the bottom and top of the pile: cities/counties and federal policy changes. They’ll leave state policy mostly as is, but potentially allow “exemptions” where there currently aren’t any.
There will also be more bills that push cultural and regulatory margins as opposed to changing actual abortion laws. For example, Wisconsin’s Senate passed a bill on Tuesday that would allow “expectant parents [to] take a deduction on their state income taxes months before the birth of a child” by providing proof of a heartbeat.

Pro-Access Takeaways:

This election proved the case that abortion is a winning issue—and it also takes a lot of money. Jessica Piper from Politico reported that a combined $48 million was spent just in support of Beshear’s win.
These wins also show that Republican voters will choose to protect abortion rights if advocates take the right approach. Whether the movement can act on that by moving actual Republicans into the fold remains to be seen.
Relatedly, I hope someone besides me notices that “consensus” messaging was successful for reelected incumbent Gov. Beshear in Kentucky. Both sides are playing the long game here, and everyone needs a solid messaging strategy.

👎Missouri, Idaho, and Kansas launched another legal challenge to the FDA’s approval of mifepristone, one of two medications used to induce abortions. For those interested, here is our refresher on mifepristone, misoprostol, and medicated abortion.
👎Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody asked the state Supreme Court to block a ballot initiative that would add abortion rights to the state constitution. The initiative ensures abortion remains legal at least until “viability,” a term that the AG has called “misleading.” This plays directly into the debate over whether constitutional amendments, especially citizen-driven amendments, should go to viability or remain open-ended.
👍An Idaho judge temporarily blocked the state’s trafficking law that would jail people who aid a resident minor in legally accessing abortion outside the state. This law and case is on the watch list, as it’s at the forefront of anti-access policy.

This Week in Abortion