This Week in Abortion, The Post-Roe Conversation
This Week in Abortion, The Post-Roe Conversation
A collection of good reads, events from the week, and policy insights.
Welcome back to your weekly roundup of good reads, legal updates, and legislative tracking on abortion.
It has been a year since the Dobbs decision and many news outlets have published retrospectives on the impact. Our feature this week highlights some of the trends we’ve seen in coverage and provides our own thoughts on what is missing from the conversations. We hope you find it interesting!
“Good” Reads (anniversary-edition)
Forward Midwifery is moderating a free virtual discussion on the impact of Dobbs next Wednesday that looks interesting. Speakers include Midwest Access Coalition, Our Justice, Mississippi Reproductive Freedom Fund, WISP, Online Abortion Resource Squad, and more. Register here.
Vice President Kamala Harris discussed abortion policy in an hour-long ReidOut special on MSNBC this week from Dallas.
Click on image to watch the ReidOut special In a follow-up to last week’s story on Google’s profits from anti-access advertisers, Wired has a Life After Roe series, including pieces on the lost OB-GYNs, medicated abortion, the underground pill market and Europe’s abortion minefield.
Guttmacher Institute has a great overview of the pro-access summary of what happened across state legislatures this past year and Politico outlined a fresh take of their 10 surprises since Roe V. Wade fell.
State and Local Events of the Week
👍 New York passed a bill protecting providers who send abortion pills to patients in states with abortion bans. It is expected to be signed by Governor Hochul.
👍 A ballot measure in Missouri that hopes to restore access to abortion will move forward (pending appeal) after a months-long game to delay it from getting on the ballot was ended by a judge this week.
👍 Most of the primary results are in from Virginia, and voters made it clear that moderate democrats who don’t support abortion are not favored. We are excited to follow these elections into the fall.
👍 Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs signed an executive order banning local prosecutors from trying abortion-related cases and safeguarding those participating in abortions from extradition.
Legal Updates
👍 North Carolina abortion providers filed a federal lawsuit challenging the state’s 12-week ban, particularly focusing on additional restrictions and hurdles that are part of the implementation.
👍 Medicated abortion will remain legal in Wyoming after a Judge blocked the ban from going into effect until after an active lawsuit is decided.
👍 Kansas has agreed to a 5-week wait before enforcing their new law requiring doctors to inform patients of medicated abortion reversal (a medically unsound option). It is expected a state judge will make a decision on outstanding lawsuits against the law before then.
👎 Kentucky access advocates dropped their lawsuit challenging the state’s ban after it was ruled they had no “third party standing,” meaning the abortion clinics could not speak for their general patients and need to have an actual pregnant person to be suffering to reintroduce their case.
Feature: The Post-Roe Conversation
Today marks the one year anniversary of the Dobbs decision that eliminated a federal right to abortion services and sent the decision down to the state level.
For this week’s feature we are highlighting some of the most salient points in the coverage of this milestone, sharing some of what we are seeing in the anti-access community, and providing a bit of our own interpretation. (Sidenote: If you like this format, check out Tangle, where we got some inspiration from.)
Main themes from mainstream media and pro-access advocates*
*These are organized together as the mainstream media has primarily covered the anniversary from a pro-access lens.
Inequalities in access already existed and in the last year that situation has gone from bad to worse.
“While there is no law in the U.S. that regulates what a man can do with his body, the reproductive health of women is now more regulated than it has been in 50 years. And the scope of reproductive health care that women can receive is highly dependent on where they live.” Heidi Fantasia via Salon
“The impact of abortion restrictions is not felt equally, with many systemically marginalized groups facing disproportionate burdens and challenges to accessing abortion. These communities often already have limited access to abortion and other reproductive health services given a number of factors, including being more likely to be uninsured or underinsured, lower employment, or living long distances from a health center.” Center for American Progress
“A theme of fear is emerging from the data…Not only are providers scared of flouting new laws, but some patients are terrified just to be pregnant in states with abortion bans and are traveling long distances when problems arise.” Dr. Daniel Grossman, Director of Advancing New Standards in Reproductive Health tells News From the States
Abortion restrictions, combined with the challenges of practicing in rural areas, threaten to expand so-called “maternal care deserts," Dr. Amy Domeyer-Klenske via ABC News
Abortions seem to be down, but data is fuzzy and patients are finding ways around the bans (as expected).
“Rather than reduce abortions, the bans enacted since Roe was struck down appear largely to have pushed patients across state lines or to find pills online. Illinois, Florida and North Carolina have reported thousands more abortions compared with the months before the Supreme Court ruling. Nationally, average monthly abortions fell by about 3 percent in the nine months after the ruling.” NYTimes
“Because of reporting lags and gaps in data, the impact on the number of abortions provided across the U.S. is not completely clear. But the authors of #WeCount…say the monthly average went down after Dobbs.” Associated Press
Most Americans support some level of access to abortion and the political establishment thinks it will continue to be a winning issue for Democrats.
“Even conservatives, although the changes are slight, are increasingly supportive of abortion rights. There are other signs that longstanding views are shifting: For instance, Americans are more open to the idea of unrestricted third-trimester abortion than they were even a year ago.” FiveThirtyEight
“Top Democratic campaign leaders said during a press call they expect [abortion access and reproductive rights] will be key to regaining control of the U.S. House and keeping control of the U.S. Senate, especially in swing states and purple districts.” Nebraska Examiner
“Before the end of Roe, it was easy to be a pro-life Republican. Now it’s a political albatross and the intraparty knife fight threatens to be intense.” Charlie Sykes via Politico
Pro-access advocates and observers are warning that states with robust access will be targeted next, and that anti-access advocates are engaging in attacks on democracy itself.
“Anti-abortion extremists are completely emboldened by the Dobbs decision and they are increasingly focused on clinics in states with protective measures like Illinois.” Michele Landau, CEO of Hope Clinic for Women tells the Sun-Times
“Abortion Extremism Is Fueling Additional Attacks on Democracy…anti-abortion governors and state legislators in seven states have sought to restrict [the discretionary power of district attorneys],” and use preemption (the principle of state rules trumps local rule) to, “concentrate their power and block progress at the local level to protect or expand access to abortion.” Guttmacher
“A bigger surprise has been the effort to undo, through litigation, the FDA’s approval of mifepristone, one of the two drugs used in combination to induce abortions during the early stages of pregnancy. It would be equally surprising that the lawsuit hasn’t already been thrown out for several independently sufficient reasons (no party has been injured, and the approval process was entirely by-the-book) except for the plaintiffs’ strategy in bringing the case in Texas.” John Culhane via Poltico
Main themes from anti-access advocates
Many thousands of lives have been saved thanks to the bans imposed since Dobbs
“Report shows 6% decrease in abortions in six months after Dobbs decision… ‘The news that abortions in this country dropped by 32,260 in the six months following the Dobbs v. Jackson decision is absolutely wonderful!’ Carol Tobias, the president of the National Right to Life Committee, via Catholic News Agency
“60,000 lives have been saved in the year since Dobbs, based on taking the data released by the Society of Family Planning and “extrapolating that out over the next six months.” Charlotte Lozier Institute tells NC Register
Bans support families and hope, and these values are (often literally) under attack by an undemocratic, radical left.
Andrew Wood the executive director of a Crisis Center in Tennessee says, “ We have been successful in legislating a decline in abortion…We have also started the process of eliminating obstacles to parenting, fostering environments to allow for families to flourish, and are looking at ways to see public and private partnerships work together to better serve families in need. Southern Baptist Convention
“I have been disappointed that the rollback of abortion rights in red states — like mine, Texas — hasn’t been met with more robust financial support and protection for mothers and children.” Abby M. McCloskey via Politico
“A pro-life movement that has long affixed its eyes on power must now remember hope. Otherwise, it may remember this period of American history as the time when it won the law and lost the nation, when the means of its legal triumph also sowed the seeds of its cultural defeat.” David French in the New York Times
“Crisis pregnancy centers around the nation have been under attack in recent months as activist bullies have started using intimidation and vandalism tactics to scare people who are trying to provide pregnant moms an alternative to abortion or give away free formula, diapers, and baby clothes.” Oklahoma Sen James Lankford in the National Review
Most Americans support some restrictions on abortion.
“Gallup asked voters the following question in its latest survey: “Would you favor or oppose a law that would ban abortions after a fetal heartbeat can be detected, usually around the sixth week of pregnancy?” Thirty-seven percent said they favored such a law, while 59 percent opposed it. But the Gallup question didn’t mention any exceptions. A May 2022 Fox News poll asked voters: “Recently some states passed laws that ban abortion after 6 weeks of pregnancy, except in the case of a medical emergency. Would you favor or oppose this law in your state?” (Emphasis added) 50 percent favored such a law, while 46 percent opposed it.” National Review
“69% of Americans support limiting abortion to, at most, the first three months of pregnancy – this includes 72% of women, 71% of Independents and nearly half of rank-and-file Democrats” Susan B Anthony Pro-Life America
Dobbs is a celebration while emphasizing that it was the start of the work
“There have been concerns about the lack of funding in the pro-life movement...supporters falling away from investing in the pro-life movement, with many people feeling the job has been done when, in fact, the job actually got 50 times harder at the end of Roe v. Wade.” Kristin Hawkins president of Students for Life of America via Catholic News Agency
“The fight to protect preborn life must extend beyond the borders of pro-life states. We must continue to forcefully advocate for life-affirming laws and resources in all states and at the federal level. It’s also crucial for pro-life Christians in America to intensify our efforts in offering love, support, and resources to those faced with unexpected pregnancies.” Southern Baptist Convention
“[We are] parked by Planned Parenthood six days a week. Since the Dobbs reversal, we have seen a 72% increase in women seeking an abortion on the MMU. The Dobbs decision incited even more anger from the pro-choice left, and they have been motivated to stop pro-life efforts at all costs. Senate Bill 1909 is evidence of their determination to stop pregnancy centers from providing free, confidential services across the state of Illinois.”Kathy Lesnoff CEO of Mosaic Health (One of those crisis centers we’ve written about, that intentionally locate near full-service medical clinics) via Southern Baptist Convention
“One by one, each of the antiabortion bills prioritized by Texas Right to Life died before it got a hearing, signaling that, at least for now, Republicans representing the state at the forefront of the antiabortion movement felt that they had done enough.” John Seago, president of Texas Right to Life, quoted in Washington Post
This Week in Abortion’s Analysis
Looking across the coverage we find it notable that the same polling can generate different insights utilizing data on national polls and the same data source for counting reductions in abortion over the past year.
But even more so, we find it telling what stories neither side is telling.
No one is claiming a clear victory
Some anti-access advocates are in a celebratory mood a year out from Dobbs, and in particular emphasize the moral righteousness of their cause as epitomized by the trigger bans that went into effect just after Dobbs - as opposed to the legislative battles that stymied full-bans in the months after.
However, neither they nor pro-access groups are taking obvious victory laps and in fact individuals on both sides are suggesting they are behind.
Polling coverage that looks really good for access on a national level misses the local picture.
Polling shows that overall views on abortion are becoming more pro-access and supporting bans starting in early pregnancy are definitely going to be a risk for Presidential and other politicians looking to win a federal seat in DC in 2024.
But, politicians care about their voting block, not the American public at-large. The polling narrative that is prevalent today does not give anything near a complete picture of how the politics of down ballot races shake out.
While polls show that most Americans support access, that does not mean they support full access. This creates complications for messaging that the pro-access community may have to reckon with at some point.
The macro economic story is not being told
The economic story is what often makes or breaks policy decisions and brings voters to the polls. But we have yet to see anyone attempt a comprehensive analysis of this. The pro-access side touched on inequity for patients in being able to afford care, but generally conversations are staying at the political and moral levels.
We are interested in knowing whether the economies of small, rural (likely more conservative) border towns were boosted from the increase in folks coming to town and participating in the abortion economy? Do restrictions hurt business in states with harsher laws? While talking about abortion and revenue in the same sentence may be politically problematic, the lack of any mention by either side is intriguing.
No one is charting a clear strategy for Year 2
Everyone seems to agree that the decision points are going to stay in local/state gov and in the courts. There is an indication from the anti-access side that there is going to be more heat on states with abortion rights in the coming year and we know from prior coverage that they have historically been more coordinated, particularly in their legal strategy. However, it’s not clear how these plans do when facing the political headwinds of 2024.
Meanwhile, the pro-access community is still operating in defense mode and it’s not clear whether there is a coordinated proactive strategy that can take full advantage of the political moment.
It’s clear we are still only at the beginning of an era that will test legal and policy norms across the country. These tests may be about reproductive health and autonomy but many will have implications far beyond.